Friday, 3 June 2016

We Vote Later This Month...

The Remain campaign in the European Referendum vote is wobbling. It is wobbling for two reasons: one is a statistical overkill that people find lacks credibility (less is more) and, secondly, it is being fronted by David Cameron.

I did not see the Sky News debate, but have since discovered it was not David Cameron's finest hour. However, it confirms rather than renews what I was already thinking.

The Prime Minister looks increasingly bust the more he leads this campaign. His lowest point was to ravish praise on Sadiq Khan, the new Mayor of London. Only weeks ago Sadiq Khan was the friend of terrorists. Now maybe it's because he's a Londoner. Cameron has shown by this reversal his own airhead PR condition: that he believes in very little other than privilege and the right to rule. The statistical overkill has also brought down Osborne several pegs, although Osborne really does believe in privilege ruling and doing others down. Osborne believes in redistributing from the poor to the rich.

I have always been confident that staying in would be the result of the referendum. I hope to get such confidence back next week. Hope so...

The Labour Party message is pretty united, but the trouble is that we are seeing a repeat of the General Election. This is that although UKIP and all that about immigration is fed by the right wing Tories and UKIP's nutjobs, the voter appeal is to those who would vote Labour under previous circumstances. People don't see that every immigrant is a market unit as well as a labour supply unit, and with the exception of pressure of housing and schools (and then many EU workers are single) and much less so health, immigrants via the EU route pay for themselves. But people go on and on about Poles moving in and taking over, and Turks are a bigger fear. It's potent.

What is missing from this campaign is any mention of European identity, and mention of the benefits of actively sharing sovereignty - that of positively giving up sovereignty for meeting and sharing. That we are Europeans, and that they are us.

In the same light, the we of the UK is a fragile concept, in that there is no 'UK' that can decide alone and securely to withdraw from the European Union. If the UK withdraws from Europe, Scotland will find it easier to withdraw from the UK (to return to the EU). It would be a disaster on the island of Ireland. We are almost merging with Ireland without even having the same head of State - the Irish resident in the UK can vote in this referendum regardless. Strange, when people have a different view regarding across the other water break.

Let's see if we get more regarding leaving the EU that we either control immigration borders or pay for access to the single market but not both. The prospect of leaving and relative economic health is the same potential immigration (and emigration) but no input into decision making. Alternatively we can 'control our borders' more but pay for it in economics. In any case the leavers say different things about the future. They haven't a clue about the practicalities of the future - far worse than making potentially bogus economic forecasts.

It is a crap campaign and the danger is repeating what the Tories did in the Mayoral campaign in London. It turns people off and people are not convinced. But the prejudices of the leavers need exposing in a movement towards a more positive outlook. My own positive outlook is after the referendum because, either way, Cameron is finished, vacated of any substance, with a Tory party armed with knives; and with the scandal of Tory election expenses building the pressure will be to clear the decks and find a way to call a General Election.

1 comment:

Kenneth Robertson said...

Since you wrote this, Adrian, you may have seen Andrew Marr's interview with John Major Sunday 5th .
The best referendum related interview I have seen so far - real passion from Major about the need for a Remain vote and some wonderful putdowns of the Brexiteers :- Boris Johnson would appear to have made a day trip to Damascus ; the NHS is about as safe with them ( Johnson, Gove and Duncan Smith ) as your pet hamster would be in the presence of a hungry python ! I have a reputation for understatement but I am angry about this and I'm going to tell you exactly what I think.
David Cameron has not been at ease in any of the interviews about the referendum - perhaps he does not really believe in his case - perhaps he has no strong beliefs about anything ; the Remain campaign needed a passionate leader not a PR man like DC . The video starting with Alan Sugar and ending with Steven Hawking was better ; the Leave campaign's video linking the referendum with the Euro2016 footy and including a lottery on the result was the worst I've ever seen - I doubt its legality, frankly .
There are likely to be wide regional differences in the voting in my opinion ; Scotland may well deliver the goods again as they did in the General Election. A clear result is much needed - either way - not one as close as the Austrian Presidential contest.I would not like to envisage what would ensue if the result were like that.