Chaos

Attorney General Geoffrey Cox marked his own homework and must have put Failed at the bottom. The unfolding disaster on Tuesday saw the Democratic Unionists say 'no' and obviously the 'headbangers' said no - and across the opposition. Even then some 40 or so votes switched. Only three Labour MPs voted with the government.

Theresa May may have symbolically lost her voice but I nearly lost mine when, after the 149 votes defeat, Nicky Morgan MP, in an interview soon after, considered a third vote on the Prime Minister's proposed deal. How dead does this have to be before it is buried?

But that was my point: why the vote to approve no deal or not followed the vote on this deal, so that when all the votes were done: the deal, no no-deal and extension, the decision for no no-deal would result in, yes, this twice defeated deal being flogged again.

One can image that, a Commons vote for an extension to Article 50 results in a half-hearted attempt by government to stretch out the leave date and really, instead, come back on this deal again. But 150 defeat cannot be overcome. It is dead: bury it now.

The vote, Wednesday, today, to say no to a no-deal is to be a free vote on the Tory side because the Cabinet cannot agree.  Theresa May will plod on, only because to go will plunge the country into complete crisis. The Cabinet coup I predicted months back is in full swing, but a leader will emerge from within. It could be very bloody and very quick: it is not about a Tory leadership election. The Prime Minister is there is name only, taking instructions, including from Cabinet battles and an emergent leadership.

The only good speech of leaders was that of the Scottish National Party Ian Blackford, who made the case for the European Union: the case that should have been made by the Yes campaign in 2016. Cameron threw the dice and the Tory Party's divisions spilled out on to the streets, he said. The SNP is coherent in the way that Labour and the Conservatives are not. Tom Watson is trying to hold Labour together; the Malthouse Compromise was a feeble attempt to hold the Conservatives together that could never be realised.

The disaster may be ended by revoking Article 50, with consequent negative effects for democracy. If people want to leave the EU, they should produce a majority in Parliament to do it. Parliament takes decisions and referenda confirm or reject decisions, rather than make a decision for Parliament. For this reason I remain opposed to a second referendum, even one one or against the deal on which Parliament cannot agree. Nevertheless, if there is one, I will vote as I did in the 2016 referendum, and vote to remain in the European Union. But Parliament should have the guts to do it, by declaring in effect the 2016 referendum illegitimate. We were all fooled by both appalling and barely legal campaigns. I do see why we may well end up with a second referendum, but it will be divisive again.

The democratic crisis is upon us anyway, and we needn't add to this an economic and social crisis any more than we have already got. Perhaps as a result of this we may end up with a Council of the British Isles, with independent nations meeting to make joint decisions, rather like the EU is constituted - a confederation rather than either a federation or unitary (devolved) State.

Labour wants a General Election. How can it be behind in the polls when the shower in charge is so chaotic? Yes, it would catch up and may overtake this shower in charge. But what will the Tory Party propose for policies and who will lead whatever is left of it as a party? It is at least two parties with two agendas: such an election will not resolve the exiting the EU disaster.

In effect, Labour's Shadow Shadow Cabinet (its influential driving backbenchers), Tom Watson's party within a party, a few Labour front-benchers, the SNP, the Liberal Democrats, Green, The Independent Group, a few backbench Tories and connected ministers, have to cohere and grow the will to put an end to this. Some of these people may well be consulted by a rump Cabinet in pursuit of tackling the crisis, revoking Article 50 and then going to the country.