Friday, 9 August 2019

Tory Dissidents Must Change Party

At the same time as Kirsty Wark was failing to listen to what Vince Cable was actually saying about an emergency Executive - she wouldn't get off the tramlines of how no confidence votes used to work - Michael Portillo was fronting his slightly out of date Channel 5 documentary on the Tory Party's demise.

A lot of his two-parter trod over known events, but the emphasis was that if the Tory Party does not get 'Brexit' done then it is toast. Once again, this whole thing is about the Tory Party and the British electorate are subjected to its continuing machinations over time.

Nevertheless, there was enough in the programme to demonstrate that the Tory Party became ever more Eurosceptic, and that it is now reaching a crunch point in how the European Union and the Conservative Party cannot get on.

If the Conservative Party 'rebels' stop Johnson, via various means, including a vote of no confidence under the law of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, the Conservative brand at a General Election beyond an emergency Executive/ Fortnight plus Executive will be toxic. The Tory Party will have failed.

The fact is that the Johnson line is now set. They won't make proposals to Brussels and so there won't be any deal. The survival of the Tory Party, even if it wrecks the country, is based on getting out on the 31st October. This is Johnson's agenda - the survival of the Tory Party, do or die.

Those Conservatives who think about the British economic (and political) future instead will have to walk away from the toxic brand. I would expect a few MPs to cross the floor of the House in September, perhaps demonstrated during the political party conferences, but if most do their dissenting from the Conservative benches then they will go to a General Election under a toxic brand of the political party that has failed.

So, really, they ought to consider their stance on Europe and realise that it is better handled from a different political base. It could be as Independent Conservatives, or the Independent Group for Change, or indeed the Liberal Democrats. It won't be possible, in the future, to be pro-European and stand as a Conservative, but even if it is possible it would not be a brand to stand under. This coming to a dramatic climax in British political life is likely to finally break the Conservative Party.

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