Propped Up for What Domestically?

A long time ago David Cameron had a wheeze. Because the SNP and Labour sent MPs from Scotland, and yet had a devolved Parliament, then on domestic legislation only English MPs should vote on domestic legislation at the critical committee revising stage with vetos. The same applies to things the Welsh do, and the things the Northern Irish do. The Speaker declares when legislation is only for English or English and Welsh MPs. Look up English Votes for English Laws (EVEL) for how it works.

Suddenly, times have changed. The Scottish Conservatives have bailed out Theresa May's English and Welsh disaster. But, hang on, when it comes to the NHS or social care and education, what exactly is Theresa May's majority? These cannot be used. Nor can any Northern Irish MPs.

It suggests that anything beyond The Budget and Foreign Affairs is going to come under an even further diminished minority.

Meanwhile, the whole point of a General Election is a refreshment of the body politic, either via a new government or its renewal with lots of changes to the cabinet.

Not this time. It carries on as if the government just had a short break. But something did happen. A majority of some seventeen or so in effect fell to a deficit of three. And what was going on anyway, quiet reference by the previous Prime Minister David Cameron to the Democratic Unionist Party, is made explicit. Did it have to be made explicit? Cameron was talking to the DUP anyway, but he didn't make a song and dance about it because of the needs of Ireland and their nasty social exclusion. But now, in another mistake, May makes explicit her dependence on them just as she seems to have returned to office as if nothing has happened.

DUP a Disaster & Govt. Cannot Get an EU Exit Deal

The closest parallel I think with recent politics now is with the John Major government in 1992. He had a majority that was weakened slowly through by-elections. It was economically incompetent. It ruined the railways. But for passing the Maastricht Treaty Major had a 'nuclear' option, a sort of Tory self-destruct. May does not have a nuclear button.

The first mistake is to rely on the Democratic Unionist Party. To hold Northern Ireland/ North of Ireland together needs the British government to be an honest broker without strategic interest in the province. To couple up with the DUP just in order to prop up a minority government is threatening a far bigger and delicate prize of long-term stability in the north. The DUP could have a shopping list in terms of the troubles memory and form of politics in the future that upsets the balance in Ireland.

The second mistake is to assume the government can have a 'stable' position regarding leaving the European Union. The problem for the EU side is that the negotiating partner in the British Government cannot deliver on its own deal.

Once again UKIP will be a very short tail wagging the Tory nutjob hard exit faction. So a deal that keeps the UK in the single market and customs union (that thus dissolves the border question in Ireland) will not satisfy these nutjobbers.

Yet a hard exit from the EU would not get past the vast majority of the House of Commons.

The clock is ticking and in two years the UK could fall out of the European Union. The Article 50 time limit and the cliff edge can only be prevented if all 27 in the EU agree - and the price may well be to stay in the European Union and no further 'time', no more Article 50, in order to prevent an economic disaster.

It is not clear either that a European Communities (Union?) Grand Repeal Act would get through and may be delayed until nearer an apparent deal.


The government, in other words, is heading for disaster, as it always was, but now doing so having lost political authority.

On anything else 318 or 319 is enough to run the House of Commons (the real majority line is 322 with the Irish abstentions) but always subject to Tory factions.

In the opposition Tim Farron should resign in favour of a more competent heavyweight and Jeremy Corbyn with authority but no power will be frustrated. It is quite possible after a time period to see a centre party realignment - the nearest to a grand coalition.

The Fixed Term Parliament Act should survive. The former prerogative is dead, and cannot be revived (otherwise monarchail prerogative is never removable and is superior to statute) so if the FTPA is repealed then some other democratic means to call a General Election is needed, not a Prime Minister who can dissolve a House of Commons as if the monarch did.

Intended to Vote Liberal Democrat

Late last night I decided to vote Liberal Democrat. Wasn't quite as certain as that, even then. However, I re-read the leaflets and there was enough in public services intentions for me to vote for the pro-EU party. I cannot vote even for a more competent team (Labour) to take us out of the European Union despite my annoyance that the Liberal Democrat manifesto on Europe is one for an opposition.

I came into a report on BBC 2 Newsnight that I followed up online to get it all. It was by Matthew Parris and was a biography of Theresa May. I said to my podiatrist today that I know he cannot talk politics or religion, but I can. I said this broadcast item went back to May's university years and throughout, including especially during the coalition government. It found that May has no vision, or no one knows what it may be. She does not 'form gangs' like politicians do. She faces people across the table, may say 'No' and follows with silence. It said too that she is, unlike most politicians, not transactional and "she cannot negotiate": she cannot make quick decisions.

Hang on. She cannot negotiate. This means that throughout this whole 'Powerpoint' (bullet points) election campaign we have been sold a pup. The media construction of Theresa May and all her robotic answers (her interview with Jon Snow earlier on Channel 4 News was her most robotic) hid the fact that she actually cannot negotiate.

I knew from the off it was all a lie, simply through the U turns and her absence of anything she believes in, other than presumably Tory privilege.

So when I went to the polling booth after podiatry I was going to vote Liberal Democrat. However, I allowed myself to look down the ballot paper. And then I was paused: not should I vote Labour or Liberal Democrat but should I vote Green? Labour never even featured in my consideration. No, I thought, I'll vote Liberal Democrat on the basis that someone has to hold them up when on the slide as they are, knowing that they will probably have to change leader and firm up their stance in favour of staying in the European Union.

I'm a Voting Uncertain

I was asked by a friend, why in a recent posting did I picture Theresa May in a "boob tube"? Do I fancy her ore something? No. Hardly, and not my intention! The picture is based on her wearing a dress at one of these lavish dinners she attended before adopting the mushroom-top hairstyle. I have added that recent hairy innovation and made the dress Tory blue. Presumably May adopted the Mushroom-bob to emphasise her willingness to press the nuclear button.

Beyond such utter trivia I approach this General Election in a condition of uncertainty. I said I firmed up towards the Liberal Democrats, but I am in a real dilemma.

It was Thursday last week that Jeremy Corbyn introduced his team to take us out of the European Union, and I said to myself that I cannot support a policy with a positive vote to take us out of the European Union.

The assumption here is that the Liberal Democrats would not take us out of the European Union, if forming the government. However, their manifesto is for opposition, having a 'destination referendum' at the end. And so it has to be said that one of the contenders for government will be removing us from the EU, with Labour at least offering the vague possibility of staying in at the end.

The argument is simple. Whatever we do, Europe is still there, and we will still have to obey trading rules. All we lose is the ability to shape those rules by removing from the political processes of decision making. We therefore lose not gain sovereignty.

However, I am impressed by the rest of the Labour programme and, having been a critic of Corbyn's ability to run his office, he has come on a bundle with the campaign. It is the manifesto that matters: all governments receive Civil Service support.

Corbyn himself responds and communicates, compared with the robotic May and the staccato Farron.

Farron is such a disappointment. He does not have a good wicket - the election argument he presents comes in nearly two years. But he is not much cop anyway. I would vote Liberal Democrat despite him, even despite the manifesto. The manifesto should say that a General Election trumps a referendum and a Liberal Democrat government would not take us out of the European Union. Instead, he has given the same sacred badge to an advisory referendum with a narrow vote to remove.

The Labour presentation is far more positive. This week unmediated coverage has shown Labour at its best, including on security. Corbyn is right to say resources for anti-terrorism must be under judicial review and preserving liberties. But then I am forced to vote for Karl Turner in East Hull. He did not reply to my correspondence. He has acted among MPs against Corbyn, and showed his own variability on such lack of principles. If I voted for him, I cannot know that I have voted positively for the Corbyn led government that will not suddenly have most of its MPs try and rebel including the sheepish Karl Turner, who follows the flock.

I think if I lived in West Hull and Hessle I would vote Labour. The candidate there is untested, and seems also non-Corbyn, but it is a Labour-Tory marginal and Labour (ex-Alan Johnson) is under threat. In East Hull, however, Turner sits on a pile and it allows me to vote first choice.

Trouble is, I do not know what my first choice is any more. I don't want to punish the Liberal Democrats twice for their part in the coalitition, as I did in 2015, but Farron has simply failed to make the case. In effect, two years only on, they are going to be punished twice. it's not clear they will even advance: they could lose seats. I hope they do not, and people in their Tory marginals support the Liberal Democrats despite Farron and the weak manifesto.

However, the positive thrust is with Labour at the national level. And it could be that I make my mind up staring at the ballot paper.

It is not a boob-tube but based on a dress she wore at one of these dinners before she changed her hairstyle to a mushroom. Presumably the mushroom bob is to reflect her commitment to hitting the nuclear button.

Church Tourism 4: the URC

The one place I wanted to visit now that I have started my 'church tourism' was the URC church at Chanterlands Avenue in Hull.

The delay has been because of perceived inaccessibility (parking on Chanterlands Avenue is limited and over a bicycle lane: I ended up at the end of Victoria Avenue and walked down St. Ninian's Walk (after whom the church is partly named) and because it is so early at 9:30 am, a characteristic of shared ministry.

This minister is soon retiring and it won't be in the mode of Frank Sinatra. He made a joke in the service about being overruled regarding a difficult hymn tune and said it was time he retired.

A website (not theirs) claimed an attendance of 56 and 118 with children. I thought to myself, if this is so it will be remarkable. Of course it was not. I was the nineteenth person there. There were 7 men among us (I'm also including the minister) and no children. There is an associated scout group.

I shall go again next week, all being well, because it is a Fresh Expressions type service: Cafe Church. And it is at 11 am and with the other minister. It is also in a gathering area, not in the main church.

The church can seat 140 (I counted, roughly) on comfy enough chairs but with nineteen people the hall looks fairly empty. But also the roof is reflective and the hymn singing got absorbed into the echo. The organ has to be loud to overcome these acoustics.

The other surprise was poor light. There are plenty of windows but they are not getting the light to come in. The situation is helped by the whitewash throughout but the internal ceiling lights were needed.

Now I am 58 and was probably the youngest there. I thought the minister might be younger but he is retiring. His sermon reflected Pentecost and was fairly standard regarding the biblical account and its intention. The sermon included a dig at those who call themselves 'Bible-based Christians' when, he said, all are Bible-based. I prefer and even need to sit through hymns and did, but I stood at the first when requested and the Bible was brought in. I'd rather not stand to the Bible!

The service had its opening and a hymn, to then went to the notices (read by an elder?) plus collection, and the sermon came before a hymn and an intercession that merged into the Eucharist preparation. Interestingly the wafers were brought by the woman (elder?) mentioned and another woman to the people in the seats, and everyone then ate at the same time, and the same happened with the little glasses of wine. I did not partake.

To me the notices should be at the beginning or the end. However, I always disliked the collection following a sermon, because it appears like a payment for the effort or even agreement.

Some features were familiar with the Unitarians at Park Street! I'm talking here ten years ago and previously. Obviously the hymn sandwich was familiar. But a surprise was the sung Lord's Prayer to exactly the same tune as at Park Street. Also 'Come Down O Love Divine' was often sung at Park Street, this time for Pentecost.

It's always a bit of fun to turn up somewhere unknown. People think it could be someone new, for me then to declare it's church tourism. It was also odd perhaps that I knew their history rather well, able to refer to Dagger Lane restart origins and that their Cottingham church gets money from the same source as the Unitarians [Leonard Chamberlain as a Presbyterian]. I also said how the reconstituted Presbyterians moved to Spring Bank (suburbs then) in 1875 and Unitarians to Park Street in 1881, that the Presbyterians moved outward again but the Unitarians did not.

But I was also able to praise the place, in conversation with the minister, for its pro-LGBT stance - "Oh yes," he affirmed, and said I nearly attended when Jeremy Pemberton came and gave a talk. I don't think the minister recalled who he is. I said I am not gay myself but I just think it is the obvious right thing to do.

Now the obvious point is that ten years from now this place will be struggling to stay alive. I note that since the joint ministry started, Holderness Road URC closed in 2014. The other URC church in East Hull has stayed out on its own; I noted with the minister that the URC is necessarily loose since the 1972 merger.

The problem is I just see no future in that standard Protestant service. I'll see if the discussion/ activity service next week is an alternative. However, a church member keen to see me go admitted that it is the people who already attend who keep the Fresh Expressions going. The sermon referred to "our growth" in the context of Pentecost, but growth is not the reality.

In some ways the nineteen is better than might be expected. After all, it is better than the Quakers and better than the Unitarians. And the URC does have a church in Cottingham and in Swanland, both of which should be larger. However, when you think of the population of these areas (it seems most at Chanterlands Avenue church are relatively local folk), nineteen (however many are missing) is a pathetic number, as is the number attending all the other churches I have visited so far. In terms of the population and interest, these churches are already dead.

At least, though, the United Reformed Church realises its condition and is discussing what the future holds. And although its churches may seem to be fragile, the fact is that, say, a Methodist church just as top heavy goes down at the same rate. If people really believe in an active Holy Spirit (I doubt it; people don't think like this habitually any more: I definitely do not) then the real question would be why such an active Holy Spirit is breathing its effort into reducing and closing churches.

General Election Outcomes

It may well be that we have to go to the polls in a jittery state regarding terrorist and suspected terrorist incidents. How this might affect the election is unclear: whether people run to nurse or think it is time for a longer-term fresh approach along with security resources.

So this blog entry is a 'carrying on' as indeed people must do. We have to have the election, of course, because at present all the ministers of government are operating under the monarch and need a legislature to make policy.

The polls are narrowing and the election is not the foregone conclusion once expected. The BBC Question Time non-debate showed Theresa May more continuous in talk than before and Jeremy Corbyn under intense fire, but any review of what they said finds Corbyn engaging and Theresa May almost robotic and heartless with her stock answers. And the day after the Tories were in another mess over taxation, and even if they were promising no tax rises at the top end that was only ever of appeal to the core vote, and rather confirmed what Jeremy Corbyn had been saying.

The Guardian has decided for Labour but with other oppositions to the Conservatives on a constituency by constituency basis; The Economist has decided for The Liberal Democrats. However, the popular press is entirely predictable.

There are a number of possible outcomes, especially considering the collapse of UKIP and the move to a two party system, but sometimes a different two parties in constituencies.

1. CONSERVATIVE LARGE MAJORITY

This was the intention of Theresa May calling the election so that she could overcome factions in her own party either for the single market/ customs union or for a complete break with the EU. I have never taken the view that she wants a 'hard exit' but the large majority would allow her to get beyond the rhetoric (UKIP might revive).

We might see some of her more social side policies, the legacy of Jospeph Chamberlain, but I wouldn't bet on it. She has already U turned on matters like workers on the boards of companies.

In this situation Jeremy Corbyn would probably have to resign but the membership is still there to find someone else similar.

2. CONSERVATIVE SMALL MAJORITY

This would be a Major dent in Theresa May's authority, having gone to the country to pick up a large majority and ending up with the same problem of factions that she had before. The knives might even be out for her. This would also expose her weakness in negotiating, because her own party is the problem.

Jeremy Corbyn might set up a defence of doing better than expected, but the parliamentary party might see a time window to act against him. Again their problem is the membership.

3. CONSERVATIVE LARGEST PARTY

The Conservatives would have been deemed to have lost despite a greater number of seats than any other party. A support system from other parties might put Labour in, but not led by Jeremy Corbyn. The others and many in Labour won't accept him. Theresa May would have to resign, her gamble as bad as Cameron's with the referendum. If she or replacement formed a government it would be hamstrung or sensitive to others for negotiating with the EU, leading almost certainly to staying in the single market and customs union and possibly a second 'destination' referendum.

In opposition Jeremy Corbyn might well stay in leadership as he had improved Labour's performance. He would be able to choose the left wing replacement: it might matter if Labour provides the Prime Minister in the context of the still existing Fixed Term Parliament Act whilst needing other parties to make the majority.

A lot of tails would try to wag the dog, however.

4. LABOUR LARGEST PARTY

Despite a fantastic result given all the expectations, the problem for Labour is that it would have to govern when some other parties will not accept Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister. If Labour plus Scottish Nationalists, SDLP and Welsh Nationalists form a majority, he might be acceptable.

In any case, he can produce a legislative package and challenge others to support it or ditch it, and many may well support some of it for a time.

Nevertheless Jeremy Corbyn would have acquired authority. Theresa May will resign instantly of course. Her gamble will have been thoroughly lost.

Again the effect would be to moderate the exit from the EU.

5. LABOUR MAJORITY

Jeremy Corbyn would have instant authority and there could be favourable comparisons with Clement Atlee with legislation to transform society. However, centrist Labour MPs could still give indiscipline regarding more radical legislation.

The effort would be made to have tariff free trade with the EU if not in the single market and customs union. It may well not work.

Theresa May would resign immediately with her infill Amber Rudd likely to stand in even temporarily if not to take over. The Conservatives would be in turmoil.

A Week to Go...

A week to go and counting, and suddenly today I firm up considerably in voting for the Liberal Democrats.

This is despite Tim Farron's weaknesses and lack of impact: but then, there is always a team.

It is also despite the Liberal Democrats having a manifesto for being in the opposition, demanding another referendum after someone else has negotiated.

It is also despite Jeremy Corbyn having a very good campaign and me agreeing with many of his policies. The manifesto is good and positive.

However, on Thursday Jeremy Corbyn introduced his team to negotiate to take us out of the European Union. As a team, they are considerably better than the Tory team and its potentially reckless result.

But I asked myself a question. Can I vote for a party - give a positive vote - for a government that will negotiate to take us out of the political European Union? The answer is simply no.

Now, let's be clear. If I lived in Cambridge, a Labour - Liberal Democrat  marginal, I would vote Liberal Democrat. But if I lived in a Labour - Tory marginal, I would hold my nose a little and vote Labour, realising that there are still positives to be had.

Where I live is a monolith Labour seat. I do not like the Labour candidate, who never even replied to acknowledge my letter sent to him. He is also anti-Corbyn in past behaviour, although a weakling version. In our rotten electoral system, my vote for Labour stacks up a given vote already, and I don't want that particularly. I can vote for my first choice, and it is Liberal Democrat.

As I say, in a marginal, and there are more of these, these days, whether Labour held last time or Tory held, I would vote Labour.

If we had proportional representation we could all vote for our first choice. In some marginals and some heap constituencies, we can vote for first choice. In 'two-party' marginals however we cannot. But mine is a heap constituency and I cannot vote first choice for a party that would vote for leaving the EU.

Now the argument is that in la la land, if the Liberal Democrats won, they would be having to argue to leave. I don't believe it. I don't believe that their manifesto is anything other than an opposition manifesto. If it was for government, they'd be more explicit.

However, there is still a week to go, and events can happen.

What is clear is Theresa May has been found out. She is wooden and we haven't a clue what she'll really do. She seems to have contempt for people and animals in equal measure. The arrogant and disastrous election campaign follows uncertain government that still picked on the poorest. They are trying to put the wheels back on the election wagon, and of course they may do so. The press may be very ugly on the final night, and we expect that, to try and prop up the Tories. However, this bunch was never going to get my vote. The question was who should and I'm firming up to my first choice.

If I lived in New Holland still, I'd vote Labour. I did in 1997 when the Tories had to be removed, and I did here in East Hull to punish the Liberal Democrats for their actions in coalition. Where I live now, still in East Hull, I'll vote for them this time. I think.