Sunday 20 May 2018

The UK and the EU: Crunch Time Very Soon

It is a while since I blogged on the subject of the European Union and Britain supposedly leaving it. The reason is that the ball keeps moving, and I wait for the next development.

However, the crunch time seems to be looking very close.

Conservative Nicky Morgan recently did a presentation in a factory that needs just in time across Europe. It needs the Single Market and Customs Union. She chose in the cross-party approach two ex-politicians, Nick Clegg and David Miliband. Presumably Anna Subrey is keeping Chukka Umuna to herself (ha ha).

The idea is that this wing of the Tory Party can deliver the House of Commons, as it has already delivered the House of Lords.

Now a group of Conservatives have tried to start where they more or less leave off, and aim to go across party and exclude the more swivel-eyed leavers. They will isolate the 70 or so (maximum) fantasists that we can somehow leave without causing considerable economic and political damage.

The assumption is that Labour will not deliver a European Economic Area (EEA) solution in its voting: a solution that would keep Ireland economically united, and indeed Britain economically united with Europe. Nicky Morgan is a little disingenuous on this matter: one minute she sees the EEA as possible, but next it is clear that it is what she and the others want. Of course, she is trying not to frighten the Tory horses.

The fact that the far right in terms of leaving the EU won't get the prize they want (a sort of independent, bargain basement, economic wonderland) does not seem to trouble them. And this is because they see the whole thing in terms of the Conservatives and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) holding a majority. If Theresa May PM (I think she is the Prime Minister) goes with the new group, they will withdraw the whip from themselves and the government will lose its majority.

All this is coming close, because Theresa May is telling European leaders that the whole UK will be going for the 'backstop' in the agreement made that allowed stage 2 of negotiating to take place. The backstop keeps Northern Ireland in regulatory alignment with Ireland, but the DUP will be happy that it also keeps Northern Ireland tied to Britain. The Cabinet, we are told, has approved this, but given that her Customs Partnership plan was so publically dished by her own Cabinet members, surely some must be on the verge of resigning should this actually go into action. It means the UK in the Customs Union, or at least complete regulatory alignment - no separate trade deals.

They will, of course, given the Fixed Term parliament Act, also challenge Theresa May will a candidate of her own. No doubt she will want to avoid a loss of majority and a leadership challenge, but Tories in this initiative and to the left (closest to Europe) would say although she can be challenged and have to fight a leadership election, she would win.

Problem is, of course, that elections of all kinds get a traction of their own. She would not be sure. A leader of more close solutions to the EU, rather than her constant ambiguity, might well win.

Labour, of course, would want to take up the reins of negotiating our exit from the EU. It might try to govern otherwise too, although it is unlikely to say the least. Corbyn isn't exactly surrounded by followers, even on his own side, and his own non-EEA position hardly is going to work. Tories might sit back expecting no deal to be just as likely.

My view is that sufficient in the House of Commons facing a no deal disaster will slam on the brakes. This will mean, not transition period, not out because the EU says clear off, but in and staying in, and it may well require another Article 50 trigger.

Basically, now, the British political system is unable to deliver an exit from the European Union, not without a General Election and/ or a second referendum to shift the deadlock. (In my view referenda are unnecessary and not part of the UK constitution, except to confirm a made decision: the EU referendum was surely a lesson for that.)

We should stay in the European Union, where political representation is necessary as regards the progress of the Single Market and Customs Union. Parliament is sovereign: it makes decisions and no one parliament binds another. A General Election always trumps referenda, which can only be advisory (regarding a taken decision).

It seems to me this is a Robert Peel moment for the Tory party. This is when Peel favoured Corn Laws repeal and he split the party: in fact it gave birth to the modern Conservative Party.

The more 'moderate' Tory attempt to isolate the far right independents will inevitably gravitate to the Customs Union and even Single Market (if you are in one, you may as well be in the other). This group won't isolate those who have been doing the cross-party approach regarding the House of Commons (also seen in the House of Lords in its continuous defeats of the Government). The seventy or so who will be cut adrift will surely have their own manifesto - claiming it is the Tory manifesto, the referendum result in total victory terms. They will be tempted to field candidates: Tory against Tory. There may well be all kinds of alliances going on in constituencies up and down the land, the result being Party identity changes afterwards. It's why there does not need to be a centre party now: such a party would follow the break up or the Tories, that might split not into two but three, or at least part of it go elsewhere leftwards.

Whatever happens the crunch point is approaching, and it's just a case of when it happens. The road down which the can has been kicked is running out, and the consequences could be shattering.

Hopefully, while this unfolds, we stay in the EU: either until they can sort it out after significant political renewal or continuously.