The late Robin Day used to say: "So here we are and here we go." This is the week of the crucial votes regarding leaving the European Union, or we think so. One has to give a little qualification to this, because they have been promised and pulled before, and frankly Geoffrey Cox, the Attorney General, as has achieved nothing at all. The fact that he has been involved in the negotiations himself, to then pronounce on them as a law officer, is, as one MP has called it, "Marking his own homework." Having achieved nothing much, the MPs are almost obliged to vote as they did, but some will look at the clock and take fright.
The votes are actually in the wrong order. So they vote on May's deal, then (day 2) on accepting no deal, then (day 3) on a delay. If one calls the second vote, in reverse, rejecting no deal, then it should have come first. Thus is the suspicion, then, that rejecting no deal after rejecting May's deal becomes an excuse for trying May's deal a third time. That would depend on the delay.
Assuming the delay is agreed, it then becomes about how long, and earliest July to go avoids participating in the European Parliament elections. But this may not be on offer. If it is a long one, then we participate, and there is a whole different vista of decision taking. A short one only makes sense with a Norway plus style deal agreed, or a rush to a General Election (that solves nothing - it will finish off the Independent Group). A referendum on the deal takes some organising, and no matter which way it is arranged it will either be seen as a fix, a stitch up, as divisive, as reckless gamble number 2... In fact it still beaks the rule of referenda: you only have one for the public to confirm what a government has already decided, not to make a decision for governance. This is what was wrong with the 2016 referendum: it was instead of a government decision. It was a gamble by Cameron for preserving the Tory Party and shutting up its rabid right wing, and failed on that first account and will on the second.
This whole process is straining the political institutions to destruction. The parties have been made weak. They could shatter before it is done.
It is said that the passing of three Tories to The Independent Group (though Heidi Allen was hardly a Tory at all after her poverty roadtrip with Frank Field) has prevented more Labour MPs going over to it, and indeed Tom Watson has tried to stem the flow by his 'party within a party'. Labour, however , is even now still prevaricating, and this could overwhelm Tom Watson's efforts. And watch out for more Tories going over this week as the chaos continues. If the Tory Party shows itself as overwhelmingly a no deal block vote, many on its left and pro-EU side will leave. Justine Greening is a key figure. If ever Liz Kendall goes to it, then it really will attract over many more Labour MPs. Possible. If Jess Phillips joins her mate Luciana Berger then Labour is finished. Very unlikely. But most likely of all is this group does last the rest of this Parliament; it has already made a mistake calling itself the Independent Group because 'independent' is a reserved word in elections, so it will have to find a new name. The Reform Party is a good bet. But it lacks the SDP gravitas at its launch.
So the upshot of a technical extension (to July) won't cut it without a definite leave policy in mind, otherwise it has to be longer. May may well try a third go. There is a possibility that Corbyn talking to Tories leads to a Norway Plus outcome, but if this was to go through the Tory Party would have been beaten in a chess game that will also cause its destruction.
Her career is now finished. A long extension must see new leadership. A short one leads to chaos or such overtaking.
But there is no time for a leadership election: thus comes the Cabinet Coup part 2. It was successful plus many ministerial resignations to get taking no deal off the agenda (formally, not practically) and then the status quo ante seemed to continue regarding the cabinet. But the situation could well see an effective temporary leadership in the cabinet do the steering of votes to get an outcome.
Nothing is certain, and in the end the economic and social disaster versus the referendum disaster could well result in such a cabinet or outcome revoking Article 50 altogether. The recriminations have already started (how it all went wrong, a history of botched negotiating) but the result is not complete.
It is a national crisis. My bet is a cabinet coup continuing. Oh, this talk of a 'Brexit Tory Leader' - it makes no difference other than another way to destroy the Tory Party.
Hold on to your seats.
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